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Analisi tecnica dei mercati: oro, dollaro, argento, 14/12/2018

  • 14 Dicembre 2018
  • by Blogger

Nuovo appuntamento con l'analisi tecnica dei mercati canonici. In questo spazio parleremo di idee personali ed analisi secondo il nostro giudizio, di conseguenza non rappresentano affatto un invito automatico all'azione. Cerchiamo di norma di fornire un background quanto più completo possibile per permettere anche ad altri di trovare la propria strada laddove c'è nebbia. Iniziamo col commentare gli ultimi andamenti dell'oro.

Debt will soar, growth will slump

  • 12 Dicembre 2018
  • by Blogger

Stocks are now falling. Worldwide, about $5 trillion has already been knocked off stock values. The S&P 500 is about 10% below its top in September. And the FAANG stocks are down about 25% from their highs. Still, they’ve got a long way to go. Warren Buffett’s favorite yardstick for valuing stocks measures the relationship of total market capitalization (the value of all stocks added together) to GDP. The ratio should be well below 100%. Stocks cannot be worth much more than the GDP of the country that supports them. But this ratio is now as high as it’s ever been – it’s about even with the top of the great bubble market of 1999. Stocks today are equal to about 150% of GDP. The Dow would have to fall by nearly 50% to get back to normal.

When default comes for government fiat money

  • 08 Dicembre 2018
  • by Blogger

During World War II, the Bank for International Settlements was created so that agents of the various central banks of warring nations could clear their accounts. It was a neutral third-party agency that enforced the rules. This made a gold exchange standard possible among central bankers. What they did not allow to the masses whose gold had been stolen by the commercial banks they demanded from each other: settlement in gold. This allowed the national war machines to continue their bloody efforts. We see an extension of trust: by the public to the banks, by the banks to the central bank; by the central banks to the State. The transfer of trust moves from economics to political sovereignty. But a system based on political sovereignty is not trustworthy. It has the ability to cheat, and no agency can bring charges. No agency of appeal exists.

A rising gold price is a vote of reduced confidence in fiat money

  • 04 Dicembre 2018
  • by Blogger

Gold initially becomes the favored money metal because of the decisions of individuals. The division of labor is not the product of State sovereignty over money. It is the product of the rule of law. Government officials then see that gold coins circulate. They intervene, mandating that all coins be stamped with the State’s seal. The State comes in the name of its own sovereignty to bask in the light of a free market institution: the gold standard. It is like a species of bird that lays its eggs in another species’ nests. It has to fool the other birds. So does the State have to fool the public. “Money is an attribute of the state’s sovereignty!” Not initially, it isn’t.

What is sound money?

  • 23 Novembre 2018
  • by Blogger

Bitcoin is essentially digits in a digital wallet. They are created as pieces of code and can be traded for goods and services with merchants who have agreed, and downloaded the software, to accept them. There are many angles to take on this story, but we will begin with the subject of trust. From the white paper that introduced Satoshi Nakamoto’s BTC to the world:

Physical gold and digital gold: two sides of the same sound coin

  • 20 Novembre 2018
  • by Blogger

Venezuela, where bitcoin trading is at an ATH and the socialist government has issued its own cryptocurrency amid record-breaking inflation and other economic woes, has been denied access to its own gold reserves by the BoE. The justification used for denying the country’s request to repatriate 14 tons of gold, worth about $550 million, is that there are fears that Nicolas Maduro, president of Venezuela will liquidate the gold for private gain. This situation is at the heart of the Bitcoin philosophy and technology. Bitcoin cannot be censored, and it cannot be stopped so long as there is legitimate dedication by its users to keep it going. The tired out phrase “be your own bank” shouldn’t be advertised to any government, but in the case of Venezuela, it would have served well having done so. They should have sold their physical gold for digital gold well in advance of any sanctions.

Francesco Simoncelli

Fiat money: an endless supply of lies, Part #2

  • 17 Novembre 2018
  • by Blogger

The monopoly over money is fading. New kinds of money replaced M-1 and its components: currency in circulation and checking accounts. We got M-2, then M-3, then MZM. They vary. The experts do not agree on which is “the real money.” They are not sure which has the greatest influence. The central banks do not control them directly. Sometimes, as today, central banks do not seem to control them even indirectly. Central bankers had lost control over money and the economy. New information technologies have undermined any centralized control.

Fiat money: an endless supply of lies, Part #1

  • 12 Novembre 2018
  • by Blogger

Look for “Inflation Calculator.” It’s the second entry under “Inflation & Consumer Spending.” Click the link. Up will pop the inflation calculator. Enter the figure 1000 in the box, and then click the down arrow to enter the date: 1913. Then click “Calculate.” You will see how much money, after taxes, you would need today to equal the purchasing power of $1,000 in 1913, the year of creation for the FED. To compare the success of the FED’s monetary policy, recall that gold today is about $1,200/oz. In 1913, it was $20. That is, gold today is 60 times more valuable, as assessed in dollars, than it was in 1913. Compare this to the resulting figure in the Inflation Calculator. I’m not going to tell you. You should do this exercise for yourself.

It was the abandonment of the gold standard that made modern barbarism affordable

  • 07 Novembre 2018
  • by Blogger

The gold standard is seen as the product of voluntary exchange. The State’s enforcement of the laws of contract leads to the development of a commodity money. The commodity usually is gold or silver. Whatever commodity is portable, widely recognized, divisible, and has a high value in terms of weight and volume can function as money. But gold and silver are the common winners in the competition for money. Money is therefore initially not the product of State action. It is the product of voluntary exchange. This is the view of Austrian School economists: Mises, Rothbard, Hayek. The other view of gold argues that money is the product of State declaration, i.e., fiat announcement. Money is anything that the State says it is. This has been the view of all governments from the beginning of coinage in the sixth century B.C. The State’s gold standard can be extended as a result of military conquest. The victorious nation steals the gold hoard of the defeated nation. While the empire is expanding, the gold standard is possible. When the empire shrinks, gold is abandoned. The costs of empire led to the debasement of the currency.

The gold standard made possible much of the civilization of the ancient world

  • 02 Novembre 2018
  • by Blogger

The British economist, John Maynard Keynes, is famous for one aphorism, “In the long run, we are all dead,” which he applied to the operations of the price system, and one phrase: “barbarous relic,” which he applied to the gold standard. He believed that the free market needed to be policed by bureaucrats to be made efficient. He also believed that the gold standard’s restriction of State power is a great evil.

 

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